The Vancouver Canucks will play their most important game of the season when they faceoff against the Calgary Flames Wednesday evening.

The Canucks sit one point back of the Flames for the final playoff spot, having played one more game. A regulation win in this matchup would offer a four point swing in the standings, and put the Canucks back in the driver’s seat in the playoff race.

Vancouver will be playing night two of a back-to-back and started number-one goaltender, Kevin Lankinen, in Tuesday’s matchup. They could receive a massive boost as Captain Quinn Hughes is expected to return after a four-game absence.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angle below.

While losing to the Montreal Canadiens is far from ideal, the Canucks can make amends for last night’s disappointing performance if they win this game in regulation. The Canadiens held a 4.09 to 3.09 edge in expected goals, while Vancouver held a 17-16 edge in high danger scoring chances.

We touched on it in yesterday’s guide, but it’s hard to overstate Hughes value to the Canucks right now. They have scored 2.90 goals per game with Hughes in the lineup this season, compared to 1.93 goals per game with Hughes out of the lineup. Hughes ranks 10th among all NHL skaters with 1.20 point-per-game average this season, despite being a defenceman playing on a team with nobody else sitting close to a point-per-game.

While Hughes has been incredible offensively, he also holds a +5.2 xDef rating (per EvolvingHockey). The Canucks Captain obviously won’t be at 100% if he does play in this matchup, but he’s been highly effective at other points this season while playing through injury.

At the time of writing, it is currently unclear whether head coach Rick Tocchet will opt to start Kevin Lankinen in both legs of a back-to-back, which has become almost unheard of in today’s NHL, or roll with backup Arturs Silovs. Silovs holds a -9.7 GSAx rating and .858 save percentage in nine appearances this season.

Elias Pettersson took another step in the right direction last night and offered a good example of why plus/minus can be such a flawed statistic. With Pettersson on the ice the Canucks held an 11-2 edge in scoring chances, and an 8-2 edge in high-danger scoring chances.

Pettersson once again looked more keen to shoot the puck, as he lead all Canucks with four shots on target, and had seven shot attempts. It’s another point that has been made often, but Pettersson needs to continue being more shot-minded given the quality of both his one-timer and wrist-shot.

Over the last 10 games the Canucks hold an expected goal share of 50.24%, and have generated 3.17 xGF/60. Actual goals continue to be hard to come by, as they have scored only 2.10 goals per game in that span, which ranks 31st in the NHL.

While it seems pretty crazy to think the Canucks have hung around in the Wild Card race while scoring so few goals, they have still been better offensively than the Calgary Flames. The Flames rank 32nd with a goal per game average of 2.56 this season, yet have a good chance of stealing a playoff berth.

Dustin Wolf enters tonight’s matchup priced at +1200 to win the Calder Trophy. Based on recent data points, oddsmakers aren’t necessarily wrong to think the Flames’ goaltender won’t be named Rookie of the Year, either.

However, it seems that voters reluctance to vote a goaltender as goalie of the year, and perhaps some Eastern bias, are preventing Wolf from getting the credit he deserves. Wolf holds a +14.7 GSAx rating and holds the fifth-best save percentage in the league among goaltenders to make 20 or more appearances.

While I’m not a big believer that players need to be on playoff teams in order to be considered for individual awards, Wolf’s play has helped his team more than any other rookie this season, and if the Flames make the playoffs, that should be clear.

Betting odds are another testament to just how greatly the Flames have overachieved based on Wolf’s play. In Wolf’s starts, the Flames are 22-16 straight up and hold a +8.2% ROI. In backup Dan Vladar’s starts, the Flames are 8-17 straight up and hold a -21.2% ROI.

Given the importance of this game, it would be shocking to see Wolf not be offered the start, though he has not yet been confirmed as the starting goaltender.

Over the last 10 games, the Flames hold a 42.96% expected goal share. They have allowed 28.82 shots against per 60 in that span and allowed 3.28 xGA/60.

Joel Farabee and Morgan Frost look to be solid acquisitions for the Flames, who could raise the team’s offensive floor moving forward. Farabee enters this matchup off of his two best performances as a Flame, netting two goals, including a beauty versus the Dallas Stars.

The Flames are obviously catching the Canucks in a favourable scheduling spot here, and have offered a legitimate home ice advantage this season. If tonight’s goaltending matchup is ultimately Wolf versus Silovs, Calgary will hold a significant edge in goal.

The Flames opened at -120 favourites in this matchup and have now moved all the way to -148. There no longer looks to be any value fading the Canucks as a result, especially if Hughes is to make his return to the lineup.

There does look to be value in backing Pettersson to record over 1.5 shots on goal at -145, which is the same prop we used in yesterday’s piece. While Pettersson poured four shots on goal from seven attempts in yesterday’s game, the price is still identical. It’s been visibly apparent that Pettersson is looking to shoot more, and the stats agree, as he has 21 shot attempts over the last four games.